Predicting future demand for medical tourism: Health tourism blog is moving to IMTJ

To keep things simple, this blog is moving to the IMTJ web site. You can find the Health Tourism Blog here, in future.

Here's an extract of the latest blog post on "Predicting future demand for medical tourism".

The latest data on hospital activity within the UK National Health Service provides a useful indicator of where future demand for medical tourism may lie. One of the advantages of the UK public health system is that with one provider....the NHS, and one payor....the NHS it means that an enormous amount of meaningful data can be captured about the state of the nation’s health, about demand for health services and about how the health profile of the population is changing.

Like many developed countries with established health systems, the UK is facing the challenge of meeting the needs of an ageing population at a time when there is massive pressure to reduce or put a hold on public spending, and in effect reduce expenditure on health services. All UK hospitals collect data in the same way (well almost...) and the data is collected centrally by the NHS.

The following data is taken from the recent report “Hospital Episode Statistics: Admitted Patient Care – England 2009/10”, published by the NHS Information Centre.

Take a look at how demand for NHS hospital services has changed over the last ten years. First let’s examine the age profile of patients admitted to UK hospitals:

In 2009/10 there were:

• 16,806,200 hospital stays, a 38 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 1,939,190 stays for patients aged 0 to 14; a 15 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 7,333,110 stays for patients aged 15 to 59; a 29 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 3,642,940 stays for patients aged 60 to 74; a 48 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 3,837,990 stays for patients aged 75 and over, a 66 per cent rise on 1999/2000.

Read the full article at IMTJ: Go to "Predicting future demand for medical tourism".

The opportunities for Korea in medical tourism

South Korea is a country that has come late to the medical tourism game, but it may in the long term become one of the winners. Perhaps initially attracted by the inflated forecasts that are touted around the medical tourism industry by “industry experts” and commentators, Korea has however taken a more realistic view of where its success may lie.

The recent Busan Medical Tourism Convention provided an insight into how Korea is thinking about the opportunities presented by medical tourism. In 2010, Korea is expecting to attract around 60,000 medical tourists and the target is to attract 140,000 in 2015. This is not an unreasonable target and is far more realistic than some of the numbers that we see appearing from government and tourism organisations in other countries. The “highest quality, lowest cost” strategy is not one that Korea wants to pursue or indeed should be pursuing. Korea’s research into existing medical travellers shows that quality, convenience and trust factors far outweigh cost related drivers. In terms of relative costs of healthcare services, Korea is significantly less expensive than the USA (but then every country is) but is not as price competitive as countries such as India, Singapore or Thailand. Indeed, something like a knee or hip replacement would cost a similar amount in Korea to the cost of private treatment in the UK.

So, Korea is not going to win on cost. Nor is it going to attract vast numbers of medical tourists from Europe. Its prices aren’t competitive enough and long flight times will deter potential European patients. The same may apply to patients from the USA if the much hyped US medical tourism boom begins to happen. For a US patient, the perception of quality of care in medical destinations such as Korea, Singapore and Thailand may be very similar. So, if it comes down to the cost factor, Korea will lose out.

So, from where is Korea looking to attract its patients? The drivers of accessibility and cultural match provide the answer:

• Although the USA is a twelve hour flight away, cultural connections mean that the Korean community within the USA has to be a prime target. Around 1.2 million Korean Americans, many of whom are on the West coast should provide a source of patients.


• Within a one hour flight from Korea is Japan, already a source of many cosmetic surgery tourists, and where healthcare costs are rising fast.


• And not much farther away is China which may provide a plentiful supply of medical tourists in the longer term.


• The interesting market that Korea and many countries are turning their attention to is Russia. With the movement towards a market economy in Russia, there’s a wealthy upper class that is investing abroad, taking holidays abroad....and seeking healthcare abroad.

How can Korea create a competitive advantage in the overcrowded world of medical tourism? It may not be in Western medicine; Kang Dong Hospital in Busan is a Korean hospital that combines Western medicine with “traditional” oriental medicine and provides a model of healthcare that is attractive to many in the Far East.

Another opportunity is for Korea to build on its existing strengths and the image it has created in world markets. Through the success of companies such as Samsung and LG, Korea has created a hi-tech modern image for itself. Applying its technological knowhow and skills to the medical tourism sector may prove advantageous in creating an edge over the competition. The only technology company that I have encountered at a medical tourism conference so far is Samsung.

It has been said that Korea’s success in technology and in manufacturings industries such automotive lies in its ability to copy what others are doing, learn from their mistakes, do it better and work harder at it. If Korea applies the same philosophy to medical tourism, then some of the more established destinations will be looking over their shoulders.

Will Obama end the American medical tourism dream?

As reported in International Medical Travel Journal this week, President Obama has pledged to cure Americans from "the crushing cost of health costs." His proposed reforms include lower prices from hospitals, salary cuts for doctors, and payment to hospitals by government insurance schemes linked to quality of care not quantity of care. He also wants to give Americans the option of a public health insurance plan. His plans follow a social insurance model which is found in some European countries.


Simplifying the funding structure within US hospitals could also lead to significant cost savings. At present an individual US healthcare provider may have to administer payments through upwards of 700 different providers.

Past research (1) has shown that while the United States spends significantly more on health care per capita than Europeans nations, Europe actually delivers more real resources per capita. For example, Europe employs a larger health workforce per capita and delivers more physician visits, hospital days, and prescription drugs than the United States. Higher prices and administrative inefficiencies account for most of this differential.

Obama's grand plan could end the American medical tourism dream. Introducing what is in effect a publicly funded healthcare system and forcing down prices could remove a key driver for outbound medical tourism from the USA.

The IMTJ's conclusion:

"If Americans are a target market, you need to keep a very close eye on US healthcare reform as it could quickly impact your business. You may even have to change from marketing on price to marketing on quality alone."

...and I tend to agree.

Recent years have seen a bandwagon effect in the medical tourism sector. And it's been a "get it cheap" bandwagon. But for decades medical tourism has been driven by patients seeking better treatment, specialist expertise, and higher quality. Some new market entrants may need to rethink their strategy.

1 Mark V. Pauly, “US health care costs: The untold true story,” Health Affairs, 1993, pp. 152–9.

What can medical tourism learn from previous recessions?

How will the medical tourism sector fare in a global recession that's affecting everything from house prices to car sales to polar bears and dog ownership!

If unemployment in the Western world climbs to record levels in the coming year, is this good news or bad news for the healthcare sector?

Some good news comes in a recent McKinsey analysis. According to McKinsey, in previous recessions, US consumers changed their their spending priorities rather than cutting all expenditure across the board. In discretionary areas of expenditure such as dining out, personal care products, and charitable donations fell. But expenditure on groceries, books, insurance, education and healthcare actually rose.

See the McKinsey analysis - Industry trends in recessions.

However.... compared to the 1990/91 and 2000/01 downturns what we are facing now could be much much worse. In the UK, there are early indications that discretionary expenditure on private education and, of more relevance, private self paid surgery is being affected.

It remains to be seen whether those with less money in their pockets will be attracted by low cost treatment abroad , and whether the credit crunch stimulates new demand for medical tourism.

Do concerns about MRSA and hospital infection drive patients abroad?

Medical tourists who travel abroad for treatment, don't just do it to save money. In our soon to be published "Medical Tourism Survey", 56% of the respondents who went for elective surgery abroad said that worries about the risk of MRSA/hospital infection in NHS hospitals were a "Very Important" or "Quite Important" factor.

According to the Health Protection Agency's latest data, there was an 18 per cent drop in cases of MRSA in England from July to September compared to the previous quarter (April to June). This is a drop of about 230 cases per quarter. however, there were still 1,072 cases reported in England during July to September 2007 .

The latest C. difficile figures show that there were 10,734 cases in patients aged 65 years and over in England, reported in the third quarter of 2007. This is a 21% decrease on the previous quarter. In patients between 2 and 64 years of age, 2,496 C. difficile cases were reported in the third quarter of 2007.

So.... there is some indication that the NHS is having some success in improving its poor reputation for hospital infection. But there's an awfully long way to go. The UK is way behind countries such as Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Spain in controlling MRSA and hospital infection rates. (See MRSA statistics in UK and Europe).

Until the NHS can reduce hospital infection rates to a minimal level, patient concerns will continue to be a factor in why people choose treatment in private hospitals in the UK or treatment abroad.

EU proposals promise boost to medical tourism

European Commission proposals to be released next week will increase patient mobility within the EU and give NHS patients access to hospitals across the Continent; patients in other EU countries will will also have access to NHS hospitals.

The proposals will confirm the ruling of the European Court of Justice on overseas treatment for waiting list patients who are suffering "undue delay". Yvonne Watts, a British patient who was on a waiting list for hip replacement paid to go to a French hospital for her hip operation; she then went to the European Court of Justice to claim the costs of the operation from the NHS. The Court confirmed the legal right of patients to seek treatment in another EU state, if they have to suffer "undue delay" in their country of residence.

The new proposals could result in a boom in NHS sponsored health tourism. Patients would pay for travel and accommodation costs, but the NHS would foot the bill for the treatment.

Details of the new proposals are expected to be made available this week.

New health index means good news for medical tourism companies

The recently published Euro Health Consumer Index provides some interesting insights into the state of the UK health services and some encouragement for those who see the UK as a developing market for outbound medical tourists. The Index rates the public healthcare systems in 29 European countries on many factors such as clinical outcomes, quality of care, access to health services and patient information.

Austria emerges as the 2007 winner of the Euro Health Consumer Index, followed by the Netherlands, France, Switzerland and Germany.

The UK comes a very disappointing 17th out of the 29 countries; its score is dragged down by waiting lists and uneven quality performance. Medical tourism destinations such as France, Belgium, Estonia, Cyprus, Spain and the Czech Republic all outscore the UK.

As a separate exercise, the Euro Health Consumer Index 2007 included a value for money adjusted score, the "Bang-For-the-Buck adjusted score", which attempts to measure the value for money which the consumer gets from the healthcare system allowing for the spend on public healthcare in the country.

More bad news for the UK National Health Service.....

The UK sinks to 26th out of 29. Only Bulgaria, Poland and Latvia do worse.

Despite the efforts of successive UK governments, the NHS continues to deliver value for money to UK health consumers.

And that's probably good news for medical tourism companies!