Predicting future demand for medical tourism: Health tourism blog is moving to IMTJ

To keep things simple, this blog is moving to the IMTJ web site. You can find the Health Tourism Blog here, in future.

Here's an extract of the latest blog post on "Predicting future demand for medical tourism".

The latest data on hospital activity within the UK National Health Service provides a useful indicator of where future demand for medical tourism may lie. One of the advantages of the UK public health system is that with one provider....the NHS, and one payor....the NHS it means that an enormous amount of meaningful data can be captured about the state of the nation’s health, about demand for health services and about how the health profile of the population is changing.

Like many developed countries with established health systems, the UK is facing the challenge of meeting the needs of an ageing population at a time when there is massive pressure to reduce or put a hold on public spending, and in effect reduce expenditure on health services. All UK hospitals collect data in the same way (well almost...) and the data is collected centrally by the NHS.

The following data is taken from the recent report “Hospital Episode Statistics: Admitted Patient Care – England 2009/10”, published by the NHS Information Centre.

Take a look at how demand for NHS hospital services has changed over the last ten years. First let’s examine the age profile of patients admitted to UK hospitals:

In 2009/10 there were:

• 16,806,200 hospital stays, a 38 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 1,939,190 stays for patients aged 0 to 14; a 15 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 7,333,110 stays for patients aged 15 to 59; a 29 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 3,642,940 stays for patients aged 60 to 74; a 48 per cent rise on 1999/2000.
• 3,837,990 stays for patients aged 75 and over, a 66 per cent rise on 1999/2000.

Read the full article at IMTJ: Go to "Predicting future demand for medical tourism".

Comparing the costs of (accidental) medical tourism

Whereas much of the attention in the medical travel sector is focused on medical tourism (i.e. where the primary reason for travel is some form of surgery or treatment), a more established and mature market sector is the provision of healthcare services for the tourist or business traveller who falls ill when abroad.

The structure and maturity of this sector means that it is far easier to gather comparative data such as the cost of healthcare and actual treatment in different countries. Cost management is in the hands of the international insurers, the travel insurance companies and the assistance companies who negotiate prices with hospital providers worldwide.A recent analysis of travel insurance claims, published by the UK based travel insurer, Sainsbury’s Travel Insurance, provides an insight into the variation in hospital costs across the world and the rising trend in hospital costs.

According to their analysis:

• In 2009, a record number of people needed medical treatment whilst abroad.
• The most expensive country for inpatient hospital treatment was the United States, with the average hospital visit costing £6,000.
• The average cost of hospital treatment in a foreign country has climbed to £2,040 over the last 12 months, an increase of 6.25% year-on-year.
• The most significant increase in treatment costs were seen in Turkey (+10%), the USA (+10%) and Spain (+7.5%).
• Over the summer months (May to September), the most common reason for hospitalisation was gastroenteritis with the average bill for inpatient treatment amounting to £1,200.
• The most expensive hospital bills were for those who suffered a heart attack abroad, resulting in medical expenses that averaged £12,500.

It’s interesting that the international assistance companies who deal with these "accidental" medical tourists have shown little or no interest in entering the medical tourism business. They have everything in place to become the world’s number one facilitator and blow everyone else out of the market:

• They have a network of “approved” hospitals around the world.
• They facilitate treatment for thousands of international patients in foreign countries every day.
• They have call centres to deal with patient enquiries.
• They have extensive technology and systems to manage the patient process.
• They have people on the ground in major destinations who can provide local support.
• They have comparative data on treatment outcomes and comparative costs in hospitals around the world.

So, why haven’t companies like Europ Assistance, Mondial Assistance and AXA Assistance entered the medical tourism market and used their expertise to attain a dominant market position?

The answer is probably quite simple. The medical tourism market is just not big enough to be attractive to them, nor worth the hassle. Which is good news for the existing operators...but puts the medical tourism market opportunity in perspective compared to the long established international assistance market.

The slumbering giant of medical travel?

Where do you think the international patients' centre shown above is? Singapore? Thailand? Malaysia? India? Korea?

Read on to find out...

This week’s International Medical Travel Journal covers a recent announcement by the UK Department of Health (See: Liberated UK hospitals to attract medical tourists) that it plans to remove the cap on the proportion of income that NHS hospitals can earn from private surgery. NHS hospitals are allowed to treat private patients (both domestic and international patients) in addition to their primary responsibility for serving the needs of the UK public.

Many NHS hospitals have private patient wards or dedicated units which benefit from their location close to the extensive clinical resources and medical technology which are available with an NHS general or teaching hospital. These are well supported by private patients but these NHS units have been restricted in terms of their revenue potential; across the UK, NHS hospitals were not allowed to generate more than 2% of their income from private paying patients. Some individual hospitals were allowed to generate a much greater proportion but were still limited in their revenue earning potential.

At medical tourism conferences around the world, the UK gets barely a mention. Yet it ranks in the top ten destination countries in terms of medical tourist numbers and probably in the top five in terms of revenue generated (Source: Team Tourism Consulting 2010). London continues to attract high value medical travellers seeking expertise and quality rather than the lowest prices. The average treatment cost for these patients is around £20,000, and for individual patients it can be much more. London also benefits significantly from the related expenditure of these medical travellers e.g. accommodation for friends and family during these extended patient stays.

Private patient facilities at leading London teaching hospitals such as Moorfields Eye Hospital, Great Ormond Street Children's Hospital, Royal Brompton & Harefield Hospitals, Kings College Hospital, Royal Marsden Hospital, and Guy’s & St Thomas’ Hospital have always been attractive to international patients and they compete with other international centres of excellence in countries such as the USA and Germany . Indeed, these NHS private patient facilities earn more from international private patients (medical tourists) than they do from UK private patients.

The Harris International Patient Centre at Great Ormond Street (pictured above) is a good example. The Centre has 130 staff, working with over 170 clinicians in Great Ormond Street Children's Hospital. It’s bigger than most international patient departments serving “medical tourists” that you would find anywhere in the world. And it’s very busy. But, until now Great Ormond Street and similar NHS run international patient facilities have been limited by the private patient income cap.

That is about to change... London “the slumbering giant of medical travel” may wake up to some of the newly emerging opportunities presented by the international patient market:

• The London hospitals mentioned above have a long and impressive track record in attracting international patients.


• They were involved in medical tourism long before the term was invented.


• And they are able to provide quality and prices that will be attractive to many emerging source markets for medical travel. For example, if US derived medical tourism does eventually take off, and American patients can make significant savings by travelling to London for major surgery (not far short of those available in Singapore or Thailand), would London be an attractive option? Same language (...almost), same culture (...almost).

This American who travelled to Wales for surgery may be the start of a growing trend....

Change in UK regulations may reduce infertility tourism

One factor that can affect any aspect of medical travel and medical tourism is that the market sector can be a victim of its own success. Constantine Constantinides has highlighted this previously in his IMTJ article “Medical Tourism and the West's Revenge”, arguing that in effect the success of medical travel is self limiting.

How can this success be self limiting?

Where overseas treatment becomes an attractive option for patients, domestic providers and governments may react to this trend by becoming more competitive (e.g. by reducing prices for local treatment) or by removing the causes and drivers for medical travel (e.g. by changing local regualtion of a treatment). Thus, the more patients travel abroad for treatment, the greater will be the reaction within the domestic market and a “balance of trade” will be reached.

An excellent example of this phenomenon is this week’s announcement by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) that it intends to conduct a consultation over changes to the rules governing egg and sperm donation in the UK. There has been a significant shortage of egg and sperm donors in the UK due to the restrictions on the payments that can be made to donors. The £250 maximum "compensation" payment for both men and women donors has meant that demand for donor eggs and sperm has far exceeded supply. Waiting lists can be as long as two to three years for those patients eligible for NHS treatment.

The removal of donor anonymity has also been a contributing factor to the reluctance of donors to come forward. According to the most recent HFEA statistics (2008), only 1,184 women donated eggs and there were only 396 new sperm donors in 2008. Around 2,000 babies a year are born in the UK using donated eggs, sperm or embryos. As a result, we have seen an increasing number of UK couples seeking infertility treatment abroad; it has been one of the fastest growing areas of medical tourism. (For the background see “New research paper provides insight into infertility tourism”). The response from the HFEA to the increasing number of infertile couples going abroad is therefore to consider how to reduce this ...... by increasing the payments and incentives to egg and sperm donors, AND thus increasing the supply of eggs and sperm. Payments may increase to £1,000 plus.

It’s unlikely that the changes will have any immediate effect on the market sector. No decisions will be made until the end of the HFEA public consultation next year. The three-month public consultation will not start until January 2011 and the HFEA is expected to be subsumed into the UK’s Care Quality Commission as a result of the UK public expenditure cuts. But there’s a clear warning here for those involved in medical tourism businesses and the medical travel sector. Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket..... Or more seriously, be aware that any segment of the medical tourism market may be limited by its own success when domestic providers and governments seek to reverse the trend.

Medical tourism...lessons from the California gold rush

In 1848, gold was discovered in California by John Sutter, a German immigrant. News of the find spread rapidly and thousands arrived in search of their fortune. Prospectors came from across the USA, from Hawaii, Mexico, Chile, Peru and China. The California gold rush had begun. California’s output of gold rose from $5 million in 1848 to $40 million in 1849 and $55 million in 1851. But there wasn’t enough gold to go around....only a minority of gold miners made much money from the Californian Gold Rush...the best equipped, the best informed, the best organised and resourced.

Others also made money; the saloon owners (and brothel keepers!) who kept the prospectors entertained made a healthy profit, and so did the entrepreneurs and store owners who provided the supplies and tools that the prospectors needed (often at exorbitant prices).

Are there some parallels and some lessons here for those involved in the medical tourism gold rush?

The discovery of medical tourism gold....
Although the concept of travelling for treatment has been around for centuries, it was probably around 2005 when the medical tourism gold rush really took off; it still continues today and shows little sign of abating. News stories appeared around the world about a surge in medical tourism – patients travelling to save money on treatment costs (as opposed to seeking medical services and healthcare quality that were unavailable in their own country). The first prospectors appeared - medical tourism agents and facilitators, and overseas hospitals and clinics seeking their fortune in the world of medical tourism.

Word spreads, prospectors pursue the dream of medical tourism gold....
The tales of medical tourism gold began to multiply. Estimates of the number of medical tourists were in the hundreds of thousands, the millions, and then the tens of millions. Few medical tourism prospectors questioned the validity of these claims of the discovery of a rich vein of income or whether it was sustainable.

Those involved in the early gold rush exaggerated their successes, claiming massive finds (e.g. “one million medical tourists to....), encouraging others to join the frenzy. Healthcare providers in countries all over the world entered the race - Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Jordan, the Philippines, Tunisia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, many of them backed by their tourism boards, health departments and government initiatives who saw medical tourism as a rich source of foreign currency.

....without thinking or understanding what’s really involved
New entrants pursued the dream without really thinking through their strategy and approach to the market. Some went into the market ill equipped; some went into the market without realising what it might cost to be successful; some went looking for medical tourism gold in completely the wrong place!

A community of medical tourism prospectors develops
As the number of medical tourism prospectors grew, others (the saloon keepers) arrived quickly to profit from this growing community, and store owners and tool suppliers appeared to guide the prospectors in their pursuit of gold.

The saloon owners arrived in the form of the associations and medical tourism conferences that make their money from membership fees and delegate fees. They provided a place where the prospectors could get together, but they also built on the hype, retelling stories of the latest discoveries and attracting more people to the medical tourism gold rush. Of course, the more people in the gold rush, the more people there are in the saloon, and the more money there is to be made by the saloon owner.

The entrepreneurs and store owners also arrived on the scene to provide the tools that the prospectors needed to mine medical tourism gold. Web sites like our own (Treatment Abroad) that link patients with providers, systems companies like Health Travel Technologies and e-Medsol that provide the systems to manage patients, and consultancies, strategists and advisers like Irving Stackpole and Vivek Shukla who help the prospectors to locate medical tourism gold came into being. Are these entrepreneurs and store owners (including my own Treatment Abroad "store") taking advantage of uninformed prospectors by providing poor quality services and products and overcharging for them. Or are they providing sensibly priced services and much needed tools that will bring long term success to those who use them wisely? Only time will tell.... and it will be the success of the prospectors who determine our success.

The gold runs out...or is harder to find and mine
As in the California gold rush, reality has failed to live up to expectations for many prospectors. Clinics, hospitals and facilitators are finding it harder to acquire patients and there’s a great deal of competition out there. Nevertheless, for many the gold rush mentality continues.

After the gold rush?
So, what’s the likely outcome of all this? What can we expect in the next stage of the medical tourism gold rush? In my next blog post, I’ll give some thought to who will strike gold and how will the industry develop.

New research paper provides insight into infertility tourism

A recent paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology in Rome highlights the growth of “infertility tourism” at a time when many medical tourism businesses are feeling the pinch of the recession.

The article, “Cross border reproductive care in six European countries” provides a review of inbound infertility tourism to six European countries receiving patients - Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Slovenia, Spain and Switzerland. Data was collected from 46 centres in these countries. Patients came from 49 different countries, but almost two thirds came form only four countries - Italy (31.8%), Germany (14.4%), The Netherlands (12.1%) and France (8.7%).

Drivers of infertility tourism
Why are these infertile couples crossing borders for infertility treatment? It varies from country to country but the main driver is the law on infertility treatments within the home country. This is the predominant reason for patients coming from Italy, France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. Italian law banned sperm donation in 2004; German law bans egg donation; in France, assisted conception for single women or same sex couples is illegal and there is a ban on advertising for egg donors; regulation regarding donor anonymity affect Scandinavians and British patients; some countries have regulations that limit reimbursement of assisted conception to a maximum age.; some countries have legal limits on the amount that can be paid to donors thus reducing availability of sperm and eggs.

Difficulties in accessing treatment at home were a driver for a third of UK patients, and a wish for “anonymous” donation was expressed by around one in five patients.
There’s also some indication of specific cross border flows: Italians favour Switzerland and Spain, the Germans prefer Czech Republic, the Dutch and French opt for Belgium.
18.3% of patients were looking for semen donation, 22.8% for egg donation and 3.4% for embryo donation.

Market opportunity for medical tourism businesses?
The study estimated that “a minimum estimated number of 11 000–14 000 patients per year” visits the six countries in the study; it may well be much higher than this.

If you’re in the medical tourism business, download the paper; it’s a useful insight into the opportunities in infertility tourism and to the kind of patients that seek it..... which should be a major influence on your marketing. Understanding your market is key to the success of any medical tourism business. For example, the internet was a frequent source of information about infertility treatment abroad in Sweden (73.6%), Germany (65.0%) and the UK (58.5%).

So, it’s good news for my healthcare web publishing business that a Google UK search for “infertility treatment abroad” brings up Treatment Abroad at number 1 and our other sites in positions 2, 3, 4, 6 and 10 in the top ten Google UK results!

Patient choice in medical tourism...Let's hear the patient's voice

The recent Medical Tourism Climate Survey conducted by IMTJ for the European Medical Travel Conference 2010 provided an interesting insight into the current state of the industry and how people in the industry are thinking about medical tourism. The survey analysed the views of over 250 people involved in medical tourism from 55 countries. One particular question that drew my attention was one that asked people in the industry about the factors that influence patient choice. The question was this:

“What factors do you think are important to medical tourists when they choose a healthcare facility or treatment provider abroad?”

Expertise and qualifications of the doctor/dentist ranked first. Comments and ratings by other patients ranked second.

It’s the high ranking of “patient opinion” that surprised me, given the industry’s apparent reluctance to “buy in” to the concept of patient ratings and reviews. Hospitals worldwide are investing large sums of money in accreditation and quality standards, sometimes as a marketing tool to attract patients and referrers. But very few patients have any idea what JCI accreditation means, or how this can help them to compare quality at different hospitals.

So, how are patients comparing competing destinations and healthcare providers?

As patients evolve into healthcare consumers, they are considering the purchase of healthcare in much the same way that they consider the purchase of any consumer good or service. And medical tourists are no different.

Let’s consider the tourism or travel element of medical tourism and medical travel. When consumers are booking a holiday or a hotel, what do they do and where do they go to gather information that will guide their choice. To determine price and availability they visit travel and holiday portals online. Sites such as Lastminute.com and Expedia attract massive volumes of traffic. And where do these consumers go to gather “opinion” about quality and services at their destination or hotel. Travel consumers want to hear from “people like me” before they buy.... which is why TripAdvisor has become one of the busiest web sites in the travel sector.

So, what are the options for medical tourists who want to hear from “people like me” before they buy? Many patients whether they are travelling patients or “stay at home” patients make extensive use of patient forums before they make a decision on treatment at home or abroad. Infertility treatment abroad is a good example. Take a look at the Fertility Treatment Abroad section of the FertilityZone web site, and some of the discussions that take place around the services provided by various IVF and infertility clinics abroad:

• Clinic Fiv Madrid, Spain - 620 comments and 22,219 page views.


• IVF in Norway -- 122 comments and 12,431 page views.

If you were a patient seeking infertility treatment abroad what would influence your decision more....

• The accreditation status of the clinic?



• The qualifications of the doctor?



• The views of other patients?

I’m willing to bet that the views of other patients....“consumer opinion” would be the major influence on your decision. (Obviously, for IVF treatment, patients would also be looking at outcome data/fertilisation rates published by the clinic). This seems to be the conclusion reached by the respondents in the IMTJ Medical Tourism Climate Survey.

So...why hasn’t the medical tourism sector bought into patient ratings and reviews?

At Treatment Abroad, we were the first to enable medical tourists to rate and review overseas hospitals and clinics. At Medical Tourism Ratings and Reviews, patients can score these clinics and post their comments about the service and treatment received. To enable this, we invest heavily in Bazaarvoice, the world leaders in online rating systems to manage our new service. They make sure that only valid reviews make it on to our medical tourism reviews site. The moderators are well educated, trained and tested to ensure only appropriate user-generated content gets posted. Nevertheless, we are disappointed in the adoption of this reviews system by our clients.

When we promote the reviews system direct to patients and people who have enquired about treatment abroad, we get excellent take up. Patients are keen to share their experiences and benefit from other patients’ experiences. Similarly, some of our clients see the benefit of allowing patients to rate and review their services and actively encourage their past patients to visit the site and post a review. The system is free. It doesn’t cost the client a penny extra to participate. But many of our clients are less enthusiastic about patient reviews.

Why is there reluctance to encourage patient reviews for medical tourism?

The most common objection from clients is that they are worried about negative reviews. What happens if a patient actually says something that they don’t like?

Well, as all of the hotels and holiday providers on Trip Adviser know, a negative review may affect their business negatively. Or will it?

On Medical Tourism Ratings and Reviews, we publish negative patient reviews, as long as they are not profane or violate other rules of moderation, such as raising litigation or malpractice issues.

Negative patient reviews are valuable

Negative reviews are of value to the healthcare provider and to healthcare consumers. Negative reviews show credibility – if there are nothing but 5-star reviews for your services, healthcare consumers get suspicious about the authenticity of the content.

Negative reviews also give objective feedback and help healthcare providers uncover blind spots. Perhaps there was a breakdown in a process or poor communication with the patient, or some misinformation in the description of your services on your website. Direct feedback from your patients is the most transparent way to uncover these issues and get them solved quickly.

When we publish a negative review on Medical Tourism Ratings and Reviews, we give the client a chance to respond – to explain what went wrong and to say what they are doing to put things right. Negative reviews which we reject and do not publish (but we do pass to clients) are also incredibly valuable. When patients are upset with your service or their treatment, they sometimes get angry, which can cause them to violate the terms of our review system, use profanity, threaten legal action or go off on a tangent – all things that can lead us to reject a review.

Don't ignore negative patient reviews

It’s important for healthcare providers not to ignore this information, because if you can uncover and solve a legitimate problem, and complete the circle, it makes it less likely that the patient will spread their rancour to blogs, forums, and other places where you are unable to see, control or address their comments.It’s important for healthcare providers to review all negative content, so they can uncover service or system improvements to improve future patient interactions.

The message... it’s time for medical tourism providers to start actively encouraging patients to rate and review their services and to start listening to what patients have to say. Accept that sometimes things do go wrong, that patients will be unhappy and will want to tell the world.

You may learn more from getting something wrong than you do from getting something right.

Wales....... the latest medical tourism destination for US patients?

A recent news story on CNN attracted my interest when it featured a US patient who travelled to Wales (in the United Kingdom) for sinus surgery to save money. It was headlined “'I can't afford surgery in the U.S.,' says bargain shopper”. It’s an interesting story which shows how the media can sometimes put a slant on a story to create news, but it does highlight some real opportunities for medical tourism providers.

The story (view the CNN video) tells us about Godfrey Davies, an American, who needed sinus surgery. It tells how he “set out on a mission to find an affordable surgeon”, and was appalled at the costs that he was going to incur in the USA. The story was picked up by a multitude of other web sites who took it at face value.

If you view the video, you get one impression. If you dig a little deeper, you actually get to understand the full story and where this patient fits within the medical tourism marketplace.

As a Brit, I found it a bit odd when I viewed the video. My first impression? Here’s a story about an American guy travelling all the way to Wales for surgery....... Why would he do this? And why Wales? But then I dug deeper. It was in fact a story about someone who started life as a “Welsh bloke”, became an “American guy” and went home for an operation. There’s a clue in his name (Davies...it’s a Welsh surname) and in his slightly odd accent (It’s a Welsh accent). Godfrey comes from Wales. It is where his family lives. He’s a UK and a US passport holder. He married an American and became a US citizen in 2002. He doesn't have health insurance in the US because he believes that the quoted premium of $1,000 per month is too much. He says that "with the deductible and co-pay, I would have had to pay more in over three and a half months than coming home to Wales."

So, what can medical tourism businesses learn from this story?

Firstly, don’t take news stories at face value. There’s sometimes an underlying logic to a news story which the media doesn’t always fully expose. It may make the news less newsworthy. In this case, it’s understandable why a Welshman (as opposed to an American) might choose Wales as a medical tourism destination.

Secondly, it highlights one of the key factors in why people select medical tourism destinations. Godfrey Davies chose Wales because it is an excellent cultural match, there is no language problem for him, and he feels 100% safe there. And it’s cheap!

Godfrey went to the BMI Werndale Hospital in Bancyfelin, Carmarthenshire. It is part of BMI Healthcare, Britain's leading provider of independent healthcare with nearly seventy hospitals and clinics nationwide. To give you another example, I myself had a total knee replacement at one of BMI Healthcare’s hospitals near London, The BMI Clementine Churchill Hospital. How much would it cost for a knee replacement in an American hospital? $50,000. How much did it cost me in the UK? £10,000 all in ($15,000). The UK price is cheaper than Korea ($17,800), and not far off the prices that Americans pay in countries such as Thailand ($12,000) and Singapore ($10,800). Given the cultural and language match, and the lower travel cost, if you were an American which destination would you choose?

Thirdly, it’s a great example of the kind of American medical tourists that some medical tourism businesses should be targeting..... people from their own country. Thus, the biggest and most realistic opportunity in the USA for Korea based medical tourism providers is most likely to be Korean Americans. Target the easy win, if you want to succeed.

Fourthly, it supports the argument that the UK might actually be an attractive medical tourism destination for US patients. Despite the different accent, there’s no language barrier! There’s a public healthcare system that delivers excellent outcomes. And there’s a private hospital system that already provides treatment for patients from all over the world who travel to the UK to access healthcare quality and expertise. And...... as Godfrey Davies has demonstrated, you can save an awful lot of money over UK prices.

How much does private treatment cost in the UK?

In addition to Treatment Abroad, we also run various UK health information sites. One of these is Private Healthcare UK. It will tell you all you need to know about private treatment in the UK.

If you want to know what UK private treatment costs go to Private hospital treatment - What does it cost? and select an operation.

And if you’re an American (or a Welshman) and you want to follow in Godfrey Davies' footsteps, you can get a quote for UK surgery by completing the enquiry form for UK private hospital treatment.

The US healthcare reforms and medical tourism

Caroline Ratner at IMTJ has just published a summary of US reaction to the Obama healthcare reforms from the medical tourism sector, so I suppose I had better throw my comments into the mix.

First, let me stress that I am by no means the world expert on the US healthcare reforms! (Does one exist?) But I have been asked by the UK media recently to comment on the reforms and in particular to comparisons with the UK healthcare system. It’s been interesting to watch from afar how a nation is having to deal with both rising healthcare costs and demands for increased expenditure on healthcare.

It’s acknowledged that the USA is one of the most expensive healthcare systems in the world, spending 15.3% of the nation's GDP on healthcare (WHO statistics). This compares to around 8.2% of GDP for the UK and similar for other European countries. Despite the high expenditure, the USA gets atrocious value for money out of what it spends.

Take a look at these comparisons:










The UK spends less than half the amount per capita compared to the USA, but provides a similar number of doctors, more nurses and more beds per 10,000 citizens. Not bad value for the taxpayer's money.

Despite these facts......in the healthcare reform debate in the US, the UK NHS has been used as an example of “how not to do it” and at one point those campaigning against the reforms launched a series of television adverts using “tragic” stories from Britain's National Health Service to contest Barack Obama's plans. The reality of the UK NHS is rather different... it works pretty well most of the time and it costs the nation half of what the US spends (as a percentage of GDP). If .......you were a US politician and could wave a magic wand which would transform the US healthcare system overnight to an NHS system of universal healthcare, free (in most cases) at the point of delivery, AND it would cost the country half the money....what would you do. It’s a no brainer. But there are no magic wands.

The perception of the NHS overseas is very different to the experience of the NHS within the UK Here’s a couple of recent, typical quotes from US industry commentators on medical tourism and the US healthcare reforms:

• “People from UK and Canada is (sic) not looking for treatment outside their countries because of being denied of healthcare insurance or financial constraints, it is because of high cost of care and extensive waiting times for elective surgeries”
• “ (the reforms) will also potentially create long waiting times for medical procedures which will create situations like in Canada and the UK, where patients travel outside their country because of long queues for important surgeries.

Note the references to the long queues and extensive waiting times in the UK. This kind of uninformed and factually incorrect comment does little for the credibility of the medical tourism industry. It’s political dogma.

Here are the hard facts on UK waiting lists:

• The average NHS waiting time from referral to treatment is around 8 weeks. It’s often much shorter.
• Anyone suspected of having cancer has the legal right to wait no more than 2 weeks to see a specialist
• Anyone referred for elective procedures has the legal right to start treatment within 18 weeks
• If there is a significant waiting list in your local area, you have the right to exercise patient choice and go to another hospital anywhere else in the country to avoid the wait. (internal medical tourism). You can also compare outcome data, infection rates and many other data online through NHS Choices
• If you have a serious and life threatening problem, there’s virtually no waiting list. That’s why I’ve only ever met one British heart surgery patient who has gone abroad for treatment. Despite this, I’m regularly amazed by overseas providers or consultancy companies who call me to discuss their plans for attracting British patients overseas for major surgery such as heart bypass.

And here’s some recent “real life” experience.

• The Web Communications Manager at my company recently celebrated the birth of his first child. Unfortunately, the birth was at 27 weeks so it has not been easy for him or his wife. The child has been in paediatric intensive care for some weeks in a local hospital, and has recently been transferred to Great Ormond Street Hospital in London for heart surgery. Is he happy with the NHS care?....Yes. Has it cost him a penny?.... No.
• My wife has a recurrent inflammatory problem at the back of her eye. She has regular assessments at the local NHS eye unit, and recently went for a minor procedure. It was urgent, so she didn’t have to wait. She went to the brand new eye state of the art NHS eye unit at Stoke Mandeville Hospital. How long did she wait?..... a week or so. How much did she pay?..... Nothing?

Are British patients flooding overseas for treatment because of “long queues” and “extensive waiting times”? No. The majority of UK medical tourists are not patients requiring elective surgery that they can’t get or will not wait for on the NHS. The reality of healthcare is that patients want affordable (or free) treatment close to home, or within their country. Before they even consider going abroad for treatment, they explore all the avenues for treatment within their own country.The NHS has its faults, of course, but no system is perfect. And would I swap our NHS for the current US model? No, I couldn’t afford it..... either as an individual or as an employer!

So, will the Obama healthcare reforms lead to a massive surge in medical tourism, as some have suggested? No.

Medical tourism will continue to grow as more patients become aware of the possibility of low cost treatment abroad. But we should never forget that what every patient wants is affordable healthcare on their own doorstep.....and travelling for treatment is for many a last resort.

Medical tourism statistics: Comparing apples with apples ....

At Treatment Abroad, we’ve recently completed some research into the medical tourism market for a third party. It’s been an interesting exercise and has really made us question some of the statistics that are quoted (and that often become accepted truth) about the number of medical tourists and the value of the market.

What is a medical tourist?
The first challenge in estimating market size is to be very clear about what a medical tourist actually is. He or she isn’t a tourist. It’s someone whose specific reason for travelling to another country is for medical treatment. It’s not someone who happens to fall ill and requires treatment when they are on holiday/vacation.

Yet many tourism organisations, government bodies, hospitals and clinics classify ailing holidaymakers as medical tourists. They are not.

The data from one destination that we examined claimed vast numbers of medical tourists but in the “small print” acknowledged that the vast majority of these happened to fall ill while visiting the country for other reasons, either business travel or holiday travel.

Another inflationary factor is the expatriate resident. Back in the 1990’s I was involved in the marketing of the Portland Hospital for Women and Children in London. We used to track hospital admissions by nationality of patient. Based on that analysis, the hospital was the biggest medical tourism destination in the world for American medical tourists..... or was it? Of course not. As the only private maternity hospital in London, it attracted a large number of American women whose families were based in or working in London. Did a single American woman fly across the Atlantic specifically to give birth or for gynaecological treatment in London? No, but we could have made it look like plane loads were arriving every month!

Comparing apples with apples
Before the dawn of computing, I studied statistics at college. What I learned about statistics is that you have to compare like with like. You compare apples with apples. But in medical tourism people compare apples with grapes, and oranges with lemons...... Let me explain....

Let’s agree that a medical tourist is someone who travels specifically for treatment in another country, And let’s also agree that medical tourism is a specific segment of the health tourism market which does not include travel to medical spas or wellness resorts or for non-invasive therapy. For the sake of clarity, we’ll exclude dental travel from medical tourism in this instance.

So John Smith jumps on a boat or a plane or a train or into a car and crosses a border into another country and has...an operation or an elective procedure. (Should we include patients who don’t stay overnight? There’s another discussion...).

Are we agreed on what a medical tourist is? Good. John Smith is a medical tourist. He’s one medical tourist, isn’t he?

Well..... that depends where he goes.

In Country A (or in Hospital A), he counts as one medical tourist.

But in Country B (or Hospital B), he counts as 20 medical tourists.

20...am I mad? No.

This is how it works in Country B.

• John Smith arrives in Country B. He visits the specialist, and the hospital raises an item of service bill for the visit. The hospital records him as one medical tourist treated.
• The specialist sends him for an X Ray. The hospital raises an item of service bill for the visit. The hospital records him as another medical tourist treated.
• The specialist sends him for some pre op blood tests. The hospital raises an item of service bill for the visit. The hospital records him as another medical tourist treated.
• He has the operation. Bingo! Another medical tourist.
• He collects some medication from the hospital pharmacy. Another medical tourist.
• He has post op physiotherapy for ten days.... ten medical tourists.
• And so it goes on.....

John Smith is one medical tourist but according to the hospital records he’s twenty or thirty or maybe even more. And this is good news for the marketing guys in the hospital and at the tourism board. They have some pretty impressive medical tourism statistics.

So, we can see that the medical tourism statistics quoted by some destinations are subject to “statistical error” but not the kind of statistical error I learnt about at college. In some cases this is error on a magnitude of ten fold or twenty fold or even more.

Take medical tourism statistics with a pinch (or sack) of salt
When you hear the latest claim of medical tourism numbers from a hospital or a medical tourism destination, take them with a pinch of salt (or perhaps a sack of salt). And do some basic “hospital” mathematics. If they’re claiming let’s say 200,000 medical tourists a year, ask them where they are putting all the patients.

Let’s put this number into perspective. The Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital in London is the largest specialist orthopaedic hospital in the UK. It’s a very busy and successful hospital. Last year, it admitted around 10,000 patients to its 220 beds. That’s around 45 patients per bed per year. So, 200,000 “real” medical tourists might need....4,400 beds....and hospital beds are hard to find in many countries.

So how do we fix the problem?

When the UK NHS publishes statistics on hospital performance (See Hospital Episode Statistics Online), every set of statistics it publishes has a “responsible statistician”. He’s the one who ensures that they’re comparing apples with apples.

Let’s appoint a “responsible statistician” for medical tourism. Any volunteers out there?

Light at the end of the medical tourism tunnel?

Following my outpourings on the “Outlook for Medical Tourism in 2010”, I am pleased to say that I’ve received some positive feedback (always a good thing.... I’ll keep on blogging!). And some reassurance that I am not alone in my view of the medical tourism world.

In particular, one of the long established medical tourism facilitators told me “how it was” in 2009 and how they think it might be in 2010. It’s refreshing to hear someone be open and upfront about their business experiences in medical tourism and the challenges that are facing people in the business.

I’d like to share some of these comments with others in the medical tourism world. Here is what it was really like in 2009 for one medical tourism business, a business that is well established, well run, and isn’t a “one man and his dog” outfit. I’m going to respect their confidentiality and not name the company concerned.

The view from the marketplace

Here’s what our medical tourism facilitator had to say about 2009:

“We have dabbled in the elective surgery market and have come to the same conclusions as you.... that to continue in this sector we would need to consolidate and concentrate on niche or rather more specialist sectors. Otherwise, we are finding ourselves becoming a "Jack of all trades and Master of none".

Last year was a really bad year. We were very busy with enquiries, but our conversion rate was disappointing and for those that did convert, the average spend was down. We have put the conversion problems down to a 50/50 mix of:

1. Recession - people not spending, or when they are travelling for treatment, they are spending less.
2. Competition - it seems in the last 18 months that every person in Europe, with a spare room and who knows a dentist, has jumped on the medical tourism bandwagon.

Another factor that has not helped is the pound sterling rate against other currencies, especially the Euro; this has meant a 20% increase in costs and prices. This does not only apply to the treatment cost but the patient stay while they are away. (Hotel rates are more expensive, eating out is more expensive etc.) The effect has been significant. Our patient numbers fell by 30% in 2009 and the average spend per patient dropped by 25%.”

So, a difficult time for this medical tourism business. But it is not unique. Some dental clinics in Europe have been relating similar experiences. One major implant centre in Budapest has reported overseas patient numbers down by more than 20% and a similar 25% fall in average spend per patient.

Do these experiences reflect the reality of the medical tourism business in recession?

Lies, damned lies and statistics?
The UK is one country where we count stuff. We have an Office for National Statistics and they employ around 4,000 civil servants who count stuff...including medical travellers. At Treatment Abroad, we do our bit to keep the civil servants in jobs by buying the data that they produce – specifically, the International Passenger Survey (IPS), a survey of a random sample of passengers entering and leaving the UK by air, sea or the Channel Tunnel. The IPS attempts to identify the number of people both travelling into the UK and out of the UK where the prime reason for travel is medical treatment (as opposed to business or a holiday).

Now.... you need to take these statistics with a very large pinch of salt. Statistics contain statistical errors and the smaller the sample, the bigger the risk of the error.

Here is a graph of IPS data showing outbound medical travellers from the UK from 2002 to 2009 (projected from 3rd quarter statistics). The sample size in this data is small - the number of actual travellers interviewed in each quarter who stated that their prime reason for travel was medical is around 50 to 100. So, there is room for wide variations in the data!

But, it may well be a reflection of the actual trends in UK medical tourism and for 2009 may indeed reflect the experiences of many in the marketplace who have seen the number of medical tourists in decline over the last 18 months or so, since the credit crunch hit.

Light at the end of the tunnel?
Our medical tourism facilitator quoted above has a more positive outlook for the future:

"We have already seen an increase in booking numbers for dentistry in 2010. January is already 100% up on January 2009 (and nearly the same number as in 2008, so something is starting to change.”

With some good news on the economic horizon in the UK, we may be seeing an increase in consumer confidence. House prices are increasing, and we have seen a return to economic growth, albeit not as good as many would have hoped. We wait to see what the effect may be on unemployment. But, like many industries, medical tourism follows the trends in the economy as a whole. Medical tourism is not immune to recession and certainly is not flourishing in it.

The way forward.. focus and think niche
Back to our medical tourism facilitator, who is planning the strategy for 2010:

“Our progress for 2010 will be to expand the dentistry further and concentrate more on the cosmetic surgery. We had taken a step back on cosmetic surgery in 2009, due to the difficult climate and similar to your (Keith Pollard’s) points about offering too much, we have recognised that rather than be a "Jack of all trades.....", we need to have a separate department. Having the same staff switching between the two products (dentistry and cosmetic surgery) does not really work.”

And our medical tourism facilitator concludes with a message for all in the industry:

“I totally concur with the conclusions of your article, and recognise that this medical tourism industry is not as simple and as great as people have made out. Only the companies that keep adapting and recognise the importance of focusing and having the correct resources to manage a particular sector of this industry will survive or be commercially viable.”

The outlook for medical tourism in 2010

Before looking forward to 2010, let's look back and assess where medical tourism is now. So, was 2009 a good year for medical tourism? In 2009, we heard medical tourism “experts” across the world continue to talk up the potential for medical tourism without any sound basis in reality. It’s in the interests of some within the industry to boost the profile of medical tourism and frankly to exaggerate its potential. But whereas some industry pundits talk in tens or hundreds of thousands of patients, others talk in millions.

These over optimistic forecasts have in themselves created a burgeoning medical tourism industry and a flurry of market entrants who may find that the going gets tough in 2010. Much of the current medical tourism sector has been built on hype rather than solid foundations. “In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is King” said Erasmus, and this has certainly been true in medical tourism.

Reality bites.... in the UK
The medical tourism sector is (a) not immune to recession and (b) is not going to thrive in a recession. The argument that people are more likely to look for low cost treatment overseas if money is tight just doesn’t stack up. How has the recession affected self paid treatment in a mixed healthcare economy such as the UK? The number of patients paying cash for elective surgery such as hip and knee replacements and the discretionary spend on cosmetic surgery is down 20% over the last 12 months. And the missing 20% are not going abroad because it’s cheaper. They are hanging on to their money, delaying treatment or deciding to spend their money on more essential outgoings.

Reality bites.... in the USA
For many new entrants to the market, the USA is seen as the “golden goose” of medical tourism. It depends what you read and who you believe. Compare these predictions and numbers:

For 2008

• Prediction: “it is expected in 2008 that several million Americans will travel overseas” (Medical Tourism Association).
• Reality: - outbound US medical tourist numbers declined to 540,000 in 2008 (Deloitte Medical Tourism Update)

For the future

• “23 million Americans could be traveling for medical tourism in 2017.” (Medical Tourism Association – Sep 2009).
• Recession adjusted forecast: 1.62 million medical tourists in 2012. (Deloitte Medical Tourism Update – Oct 2009)

Is either of these future predictions anywhere near the mark? What might be the factors influencing an upward or downward trend:

• Obama... the President who may change the way that the USA funds healthcare. And he’s making progress. Universal healthcare coverage in whatever final form it takes pushes medical tourism to the margins.... which is where it is in most developed countries. People do and will travel for treatment but it will always be a small minority wherever they are.
• Insurers, employers, HMOS’s..... We’re still a very long way from seeing funders of healthcare make a significant move towards using medical travel as a way of reducing healthcare costs. Will it happen? Yes... but slowly and at the margins.
• The recession isn’t over.... and it isn’t going away anytime soon. In both the US and Europe, unemployment levels hit 10% in December 2009. American workers have been unemployed an average of 29 weeks, the highest ever recorded since the data was tracked from 1948 onwards. Americans are visiting their physicians less, reducing the number of drugs they pay for. They are reducing their level of care. But as with the UK, large numbers are not offsetting this by pursuing lower cost options overseas.

According to a report in USA Today this month, medical tourism is number nine in the top ten travel trends for 2010 in the USA. According to USA Today, the three drivers are:

1. More coverage of overseas medical care by major U.S. insurers.
2. An increase in individual insurance policies that typically carry a high deductible.
3. A marketing push by companies that combine travel and medical services.

But will these drivers drive significant growth in the USA or elsewhere in the world?

• Some, but only a few, insurers will provide coverage....but will patients actually want to travel?
• There may well be an increase in deductibles....but will patients be able to afford to “top up” their healthcare anywhere....in their home country or overseas.
• Companies may well increase their marketing spend and may increase public awareness a little....but what we don’t have in medical tourism is a “big player”, a company that’s prepared to risk hundreds of thousands of dollars/pounds/euros in bring medical tourism to the masses.

So... is it medical tourism boom or bust in 2010?

Neither. Medical tourism is not the Holy Grail that will save holiday destinations around the world who are already suffering from the “let’s stay at home” effect of the credit crunch? It’s not the easy win for hospitals and clinics who have been adopting the “if we build it, they will come” approach. The reality is that we will see growth in the long term.....growth where medical tourism makes sense and not at the exponential rates that some have predicted.

The good news (for medical tourism) from the economic downturn is that every Western government is going to be under pressure to cut public expenditure and that usually means cuts in healthcare provision. Let’s take the UK as an example. The UK government knows that it cannot afford to fund the healthcare system as it has in the past. The UK national debt in 2010 is 72% of Gross Domestic Product; ten years ago, it was 33% of GDP. In Ireland, the Irish government unveiled one of the most severe budgets in the Republic's history embracing cuts in public expenditure across the board.

In many countries, the pressure on public funding of healthcare will be greater than ever before. In the long term, an ageing population demanding more healthcare and pressure on healthcare budgets will mean more patients funding their own care and looking at overseas treatment as a serious option. And that means there’s an opportunity for medical tourism.

Regional healthcare not global healthcare
In truth, there has never been a global healthcare market, and it’s unlikely that there will be one in the near future....unless, of course we:

• Invent an aircraft that can cut flight times by several hundred percent without increasing flight costs and global warming! Unlikely.
• Convince disparate healthcare systems worldwide to standardize the way they treat patients. It isn't going to happen.
• Get doctors in different countries to work together in providing continuous care for an individual patient (or at least talk to each other!). Some hope here, perhaps....

Where does medical travel really work...and happen? Across borders....from one neighbouring country to enough....within rather than between continents. However in need of treatment they are, and however desperate they are to save money, the number of patients who are prepared to board a plane and fly for eight hours plus to a different country with a different language and culture is minimal. It’s medical tourism at the margins. And it’s medical tourism that puts patients at risk through combining surgical procedures with long flights.

Patient flows in medical tourism follow low cost airline routes with short flight times or cross border land routes. Americans flying or driving South for surgery, Brits traveling to Budapest for dental treatment, the Japanese heading West to Korea for cosmetic surgery, the Indonesians travelling to Malaysia and Singapore, Central Africans heading for South Africa and so on.

The competition is going to get hotter
With medical tourism numbers failing to live up to the inflated predictions, we may now be faced with too few patients for too many providers. Those who have come to the market in the last twelve months are going to wonder where all the promised patients are. The simple laws of supply and demand mean increased competition. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will plummet. Only the foolish will drop prices to attract patients. Consumers don’t opt for the cheapest when it comes to making healthcare decisions. Yes, they want to save money, but cheapest implies low, quality, risk...all those things that medical tourists are trying to avoid. Added value, customer service, creating new business from existing or past customers will all become important in differentiating your business, and attracting new patients.

New models for medical tourism?
The credit crunch, increasing competition, the slow growth in patient numbers (if we see any growth at all in the near future) will encourage new approaches to medical tourism. We’ve seen the Hungarian “dental tent” come to the UK, and we hear that cruise ship medical tourism is on the agenda of the European Medical Travel Conference. And perhaps in 2010, we may see the serious adoption and exploitation of telehealth and e-medicine in the medical tourism sector.

In a recession....find a niche
So, what can those pursuing the Holy Grail of medical tourism learn from all this?

One key to success in a recession is to find a niche and ideally one that is a recession proof niche - one that people spend their hard earned cash on when money is tight. Whereas many healthcare providers try to be all things to all patients, those that succeed will select their niche and focus their efforts.

There are some niche areas of healthcare that are relatively recession proof and may prove attractive. Infertility treatment is a good example:

• Public funding of infertility treatment is under pressure in many countries.
• The need is high and people aren’t prepared to delay treatment too long.
• Money may be tight, but having children is the one thing that they may spend money on rather than anything else.
• It’s high value.

There are others...get your thinking cap on and go out and find them.

In summary
2010 may be the year in which we see some rational thinking and some rationalisation in the medical tourism world. Perhaps the recession will bring some of the “blue sky” thinkers down to earth. New market entrants are going to feel the pinch; the long established players will maintain their reputation, improve their services and continue to thrive.

Long term, the medical tourism sector is here to stay.

Stay with it.... businesses that ride out the recession will come out of it in better shape. It’s still an attractive market sector and the business is there for those who take the long term view.